TENNESSEE
TITANSTEN
3-8 | Road
19
WASHINGTON
COMMANDERSWSH
7-5 | Home
42
Key Game
KEY GAME
Julius Chestnut
#36 | Running Back@
KEY GAME
Tress Way
#10 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Julius Chestnut | None-None |
| Tress Way | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TITANS
21%
COMMANDERS
79%
TITANS
--
COMMANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WSH -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
TEN By 1-6 points
16.1%
TEN By 7-13 points
14.5%
WSH By 1-6 points
16.7%
WSH By 7-13 points
16.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Tennessee
23.41
TENNESSEE
Washington
24.47
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Tennessee
17
TENNESSEE
Washington
24
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Commanders
Win
79% Win Prob
B
Sim
Commanders
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Commanders (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.1
D
Sim
Commanders (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 47.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 1, 2024
TEN @ WSH
19 - 42
Oct 9, 2022
TEN @ WSH
21 - 17
Dec 22, 2018
WSH @ TEN
16 - 25
Oct 19, 2014
TEN @ WSH
17 - 19
Nov 21, 2010
WSH @ TEN
19 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+11.0% more
Washington: 124.9
vs
Tennessee: 112.5
First Downs (L5)
+10.8% more
Washington: 19.7
vs
Tennessee: 17.8
Turnovers (L5)
+20.4% more
Tennessee: 1.8
vs
Washington: 1.4
Time of Possession (L5)
+8.0% more
Tennessee: 0.5
vs
Washington: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEN Score
23.4
19
WSH Score
24.5
42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.7 / 17.8
29.0 / 12.0
Net Passing Yards
224.3 / 220.4
196.0 / 210.0
Rushing Yards
124.9 / 112.5
267.0 / 35.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.3
0.64 / 0.42
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.67 / 0.33
Total Yards
349.2 / 332.9
463.0 / 245.0
Turnovers
1.4 / 1.8
1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play
5.4 / 5.4
6.0 / 4.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEN
0-4-0
(0.0%)
Margin: -7.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
WSH
Advantage
1-3-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -8.5
ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEN
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -7.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
WSH
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.5
ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -5.5
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0%
Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
TEN
WSH
TEN
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
TTL
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
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