Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jets @ Jaguars NYJ @ JAX

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

3-10  |  Road

32
FINAL
Sun, Dec 15 • 1:00 PM ET
EverBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

3-10  |  Home

25
Key Game
Andre Cisco
KEY GAME

Andre Cisco

#8 | Safety
@
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
Player
Andre Cisco None-None
Logan Cooke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
50%
📊
JAGUARS
50%
JETS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
36.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.3
JACKSONVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.3 points (Jacksonville)
JetsNYJ (-3.5) 0 JaguarsJAX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

35.1%

Jaguars Cover

64.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JAX -5.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JAX)

NYJ By 1-6 points

13.9%

NYJ By 7-13 points

11.0%

JAX By 1-6 points

16.8%

JAX By 7-13 points

18.7%

AI Model Projected Score
15.63
NEW YORK
20.97
JACKSONVILLE
Simulated Score
20
NEW YORK
24
JACKSONVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jaguars Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jaguars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.3
C
Sim Jaguars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 36.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 NYJ @ JAX 20 - 48
Dec 15, 2024 NYJ @ JAX 32 - 25
Dec 22, 2022 JAX @ NYJ 19 - 3
Dec 26, 2021 JAX @ NYJ 21 - 26
Oct 27, 2019 NYJ @ JAX 15 - 29
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +96.0% more
Jacksonville: 1.7 vs New York: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +15.1% more
New York: 18.3 vs Jacksonville: 15.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.9% more
New York: 87.2 vs Jacksonville: 75.9
Total Yards (L5) +9.8% more
New York: 311.4 vs Jacksonville: 280.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYJ Score 15.6 32
JAX Score 21.0 25
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.5 / 18.3 27.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 204.9 / 224.2 285.0 / 275.0
Rushing Yards 75.9 / 87.2 136.0 / 125.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 280.8 / 311.4 421.0 / 400.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.8 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 5.2 5.5 / 7.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYJ
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYJ
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
NYJ
JAX
NYJ
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
TTL
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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