Home / NFL Projections NFL / Steelers @ Eagles PIT @ PHI

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

10-3  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Dec 15 • 4:25 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

EAGLESPHI

11-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
Chris Boswell
KEY GAME

Chris Boswell

#9 | Place kicker
@
Braden Mann
KEY GAME

Braden Mann

#10 | Punter
Player
Chris Boswell None-None
Braden Mann None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
38%
📊
EAGLES
62%
STEELERS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 61%
Under 0 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.8
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.8 points (Philadelphia)
SteelersPIT (-3.5) 0 EaglesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Steelers Cover

39.4%

Eagles Cover

60.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PHI -3.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PIT By 1-6 points

14.9%

PIT By 7-13 points

12.3%

PHI By 1-6 points

17.0%

PHI By 7-13 points

17.9%

AI Model Projected Score
21.42
PITTSBURGH
25.17
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
24
PITTSBURGH
20
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Eagles Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Steelers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.8
B
Sim Steelers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 46.6
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 15, 2024 PIT @ PHI 13 - 27
Oct 30, 2022 PIT @ PHI 13 - 35
Oct 11, 2020 PHI @ PIT 29 - 38
Sep 25, 2016 PIT @ PHI 3 - 34
Oct 7, 2012 PHI @ PIT 14 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +68.4% more
Philadelphia: 207.6 vs Pittsburgh: 123.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.5 vs Pittsburgh: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +78.4% more
Pittsburgh: 1.0 vs Philadelphia: 0.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +42.8% more
Pittsburgh: 234.5 vs Philadelphia: 134.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 21.4 13
PHI Score 25.2 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 19.5 26.0 / 10.0
Net Passing Yards 134.2 / 234.5 270.0 / 107.0
Rushing Yards 207.6 / 123.2 131.0 / 56.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.59 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.66 / 0.34
Total Yards 341.7 / 357.8 401.0 / 163.0
Turnovers 0.2 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 5.4 5.2 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
PHI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
PHI
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
PHI
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
PIT
PHI
PIT
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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