PITTSBURGH
STEELERSPIT
10-4 | Road
17
BALTIMORE
RAVENSBAL
9-5 | Home
34
Key Game
KEY GAME
Chris Boswell
#9 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
Travis Jones
#98 | Defensive Tackle| Player | |
|---|---|
| Chris Boswell | None-None |
| Travis Jones | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
58%
RAVENS
42%
STEELERS
--
RAVENS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PIT -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-6 points
16.7%
PIT By 7-13 points
16.0%
BAL By 1-6 points
16.2%
BAL By 7-13 points
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
27
PITTSBURGH
Baltimore
26.16
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
20
PITTSBURGH
Baltimore
23
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Steelers
Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
Ravens
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Steelers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -0.8
B
Sim
Ravens (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 53.2
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 43.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 4, 2026
BAL @ PIT
24 - 26
Dec 7, 2025
PIT @ BAL
27 - 22
Jan 11, 2025
PIT @ BAL
14 - 28
Dec 21, 2024
PIT @ BAL
17 - 34
Nov 17, 2024
BAL @ PIT
16 - 18
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+31.7% more
Pittsburgh: 1.0
vs
Baltimore: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5)
+63.9% more
Baltimore: 165.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 100.8
First Downs (L5)
+38.2% more
Baltimore: 22.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 16.3
Total Yards (L5)
+37.7% more
Baltimore: 403.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 292.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
27.0
17
BAL Score
26.2
34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
22.6 / 16.3
25.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards
238.0 / 192.0
198.0 / 198.0
Rushing Yards
165.3 / 100.8
220.0 / 117.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.6 / 0.4
0.4 / 0.4
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards
403.3 / 292.8
418.0 / 315.0
Turnovers
0.7 / 1.0
1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play
6.6 / 5.0
6.7 / 5.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -2.9
BAL
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -2.9
BAL
1-3-0
(25.0%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.4
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
PIT
BAL
PIT
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
ATS
33%
1-2-1
50%
2-2
100%
3-0-1
25%
1-3
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
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