Home / NFL Projections NFL / Lions @ Bears DET @ CHI

DETROIT

LIONSDET

12-2  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sun, Dec 22 • 1:00 PM ET
Soldier Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

4-10  |  Home

17
Key Game
Amen Ogbongbemiga
KEY GAME

Amen Ogbongbemiga

#57 | Linebacker
@
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
Player
Amen Ogbongbemiga None-None
Tory Taylor None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
94%
📊
BEARS
6%
LIONS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Detroit)
LionsDET (-3.5) 0 BearsCHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

55.7%

Bears Cover

44.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DET -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-6 points

16.9%

DET By 7-13 points

16.8%

CHI By 1-6 points

15.7%

CHI By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
29.87
DETROIT
27.87
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
20
DETROIT
27
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lions Win
94% Win Prob
A
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lions (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 57.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 DET @ CHI 19 - 16
Sep 14, 2025 CHI @ DET 21 - 52
Dec 22, 2024 DET @ CHI 34 - 17
Nov 28, 2024 CHI @ DET 20 - 23
Dec 10, 2023 DET @ CHI 13 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +47.2% more
Detroit: 331.7 vs Chicago: 175.1
First Downs (L5) +39.4% more
Detroit: 27.3 vs Chicago: 16.6
Total Yards (L5) +38.6% more
Detroit: 444.9 vs Chicago: 273.0
Yards Per Play (L5) +28.3% more
Detroit: 6.1 vs Chicago: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 29.9 34
CHI Score 27.9 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.6 / 27.3 19.0 / 27.0
Net Passing Yards 175.1 / 331.7 323.0 / 329.0
Rushing Yards 97.9 / 113.2 59.0 / 146.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.2 / 0.58
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 273.0 / 444.9 382.0 / 475.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.0 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.4 / 6.1 6.5 / 7.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
DET
CHI
DET
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
75% 3-1
33% 1-2-1
100% 4-0
67% 2-1-1
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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