Home / NFL Projections NFL / Eagles @ Commanders PHI @ WSH

PHILADELPHIA

EAGLESPHI

12-2  |  Road

33
FINAL
Sun, Dec 22 • 1:00 PM ET
Northwest Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

9-5  |  Home

36
Key Game
Braden Mann
KEY GAME

Braden Mann

#10 | Punter
@
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
Player
Braden Mann None-None
Tress Way None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
77%
📊
COMMANDERS
23%
EAGLES --
COMMANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 44%
Under 0 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Philadelphia)
EaglesPHI (-3.5) 0 CommandersWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

58.7%

Commanders Cover

41.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PHI -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-6 points

17.0%

PHI By 7-13 points

17.5%

WSH By 1-6 points

15.2%

WSH By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
30.15
PHILADELPHIA
27.06
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
20
PHILADELPHIA
28
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Eagles Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Sim Commanders Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Eagles (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.1
D
Sim Commanders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 57.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 WSH @ PHI 22 - 24
Jan 4, 2026 WSH @ PHI 24 - 17
Dec 20, 2025 PHI @ WSH 29 - 18
Jan 26, 2025 WSH @ PHI 23 - 55
Dec 22, 2024 PHI @ WSH 33 - 36
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.8% more
Philadelphia: 182.1 vs Washington: 160.5
Net Passing Yards (L5) +14.9% more
Washington: 206.2 vs Philadelphia: 179.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 30.2 33
WSH Score 27.1 36
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.9 / 22.0 23.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 206.2 / 179.5 255.0 / 127.0
Rushing Yards 160.5 / 182.1 113.0 / 211.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.19
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.39 / 0.6
Total Yards 366.7 / 361.5 368.0 / 338.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.8 5.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 5.5 5.8 / 4.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
WSH Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: -0.1
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PHI
WSH
PHI
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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