Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chargers @ Raiders LAC @ LV

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

10-6  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sun, Jan 5 • 4:25 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

4-12  |  Home

20
Key Game
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
@
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
Player
JK Scott None-None
AJ Cole None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
83%
📊
RAIDERS
17%
CHARGERS --
RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
LAS VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Las Vegas)
ChargersLAC (-3.5) 0 RaidersLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

41.5%

Raiders Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LV -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LV)

LAC By 1-6 points

15.3%

LAC By 7-13 points

13.0%

LV By 1-6 points

17.0%

LV By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
20
LOS ANGELES
22.99
LAS VEGAS
Simulated Score
24
LOS ANGELES
27
LAS VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Raiders Loss
17% Win Prob
D
Sim Raiders Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raiders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Raiders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 LV @ LAC 26 - 14
Nov 30, 2025 LV @ LAC 14 - 31
Sep 15, 2025 LAC @ LV 20 - 9
Jan 5, 2025 LAC @ LV 34 - 20
Sep 8, 2024 LV @ LAC 10 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +32.0% more
Las Vegas: 1.0 vs Los Angeles: 0.6
First Downs (L5) +10.4% more
Los Angeles: 22.1 vs Las Vegas: 19.8
Yards Per Play (L5) +9.8% more
Los Angeles: 5.4 vs Las Vegas: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 20.0 34
LV Score 23.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.8 / 22.1 16.0 / 26.0
Net Passing Yards 231.2 / 235.4 225.0 / 336.0
Rushing Yards 102.6 / 107.6 39.0 / 137.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.22 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.35 / 0.65
Total Yards 333.7 / 343.0 264.0 / 473.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 5.4 5.5 / 6.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
LV Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LV
LAC
LV
LAC
ML
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
0% 0-3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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