Home / NFL Projections NFL / Vikings @ Lions MIN @ DET

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

14-2  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sun, Jan 5 • 8:20 PM ET
Ford Field
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

LIONSDET

14-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
Will Reichard
KEY GAME

Will Reichard

#16 | Place kicker
@
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
Player
Will Reichard None-None
Jack Fox None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIKINGS
50%
📊
LIONS
50%
VIKINGS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
67.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.2 points (Detroit)
VikingsMIN (-3.5) 0 LionsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vikings Cover

30.3%

Lions Cover

69.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DET -7.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

MIN By 1-6 points

12.7%

MIN By 7-13 points

9.4%

DET By 1-6 points

16.4%

DET By 7-13 points

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
30.23
MINNESOTA
37.47
DETROIT
Simulated Score
24
MINNESOTA
27
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lions Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.2
D
Sim Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 67.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 25, 2025 DET @ MIN 10 - 23
Nov 2, 2025 MIN @ DET 27 - 24
Jan 5, 2025 MIN @ DET 9 - 31
Oct 20, 2024 DET @ MIN 31 - 29
Jan 7, 2024 MIN @ DET 20 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +49.7% more
Detroit: 133.4 vs Minnesota: 89.2
Total Yards (L5) +20.4% more
Detroit: 449.6 vs Minnesota: 373.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Detroit: 0.6 vs Minnesota: 0.4
Yards Per Play (L5) +12.9% more
Detroit: 6.5 vs Minnesota: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 30.2 9
DET Score 37.5 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.8 / 23.0 24.0 / 14.0
Net Passing Yards 316.2 / 284.2 216.0 / 142.0
Rushing Yards 133.4 / 89.2 178.0 / 120.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 449.6 / 373.3 394.0 / 262.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 0.8 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.5 / 5.7 6.0 / 4.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
DET
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
MIN
DET
MIN
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
67% 2-1-1
100% 4-0
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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