PITTSBURGH
STEELERSPIT
10-7 | Road
14
BALTIMORE
RAVENSBAL
12-5 | Home
28
Key Game
KEY GAME
Chris Boswell
#9 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
Trenton Simpson
#32 | Linebacker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Chris Boswell | None-None |
| Trenton Simpson | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
37%
RAVENS
63%
STEELERS
--
RAVENS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BAL -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
PIT By 1-6 points
15.6%
PIT By 7-13 points
13.6%
BAL By 1-6 points
16.9%
BAL By 7-13 points
17.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
23.07
PITTSBURGH
Baltimore
25.27
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
23
PITTSBURGH
Baltimore
20
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Ravens
Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Steelers
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Ravens (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.2
C
Sim
Steelers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 48.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 43.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 4, 2026
BAL @ PIT
24 - 26
Dec 7, 2025
PIT @ BAL
27 - 22
Jan 11, 2025
PIT @ BAL
14 - 28
Dec 21, 2024
PIT @ BAL
17 - 34
Nov 17, 2024
BAL @ PIT
16 - 18
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+80.4% more
Baltimore: 210.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 116.8
Total Yards (L5)
+51.8% more
Baltimore: 423.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 278.7
Yards Per Play (L5)
+50.6% more
Baltimore: 6.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.5
Net Passing Yards (L5)
+31.2% more
Baltimore: 212.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 161.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
23.1
14
BAL Score
25.3
28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
22.6 / 18.1
29.0 / 11.0
Net Passing Yards
212.4 / 161.9
165.0 / 251.0
Rushing Yards
210.7 / 116.8
299.0 / 29.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.4
0.67 / 0.45
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.66 / 0.34
Total Yards
423.1 / 278.7
464.0 / 280.0
Turnovers
0.4 / 1.4
0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play
6.7 / 4.5
6.4 / 6.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -2.9
BAL
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -2.9
BAL
1-3-0
(25.0%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.4
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
PIT
BAL
PIT
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
ATS
33%
1-2-1
50%
2-2
100%
3-0-1
25%
1-3
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
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