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BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

0-0  |  Road

40
FINAL
Sun, Sep 7 • 8:20 PM ET
Highmark Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

0-0  |  Home

41
Key Game
LaJohntay Wester
KEY GAME

LaJohntay Wester

#10 | Wide Receiver
@
Javon Solomon
KEY GAME

Javon Solomon

#56 | Linebacker
Player
LaJohntay Wester None-None
Javon Solomon None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAVENS
0%
📊
BILLS
100%
RAVENS --
BILLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.8
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.8 points (Baltimore)
RavensBAL (-3.5) 0 BillsBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ravens Cover

63.5%

Bills Cover

36.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BAL -4.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-6 points

16.9%

BAL By 7-13 points

18.5%

BUF By 1-6 points

14.3%

BUF By 7-13 points

11.4%

AI Model Projected Score
29.74
BALTIMORE
24.92
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
24
BALTIMORE
27
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ravens Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bills Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ravens (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.8
D
Sim Bills (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 54.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 7, 2025 BAL @ BUF 40 - 41
Jan 19, 2025 BAL @ BUF 25 - 27
Sep 29, 2024 BUF @ BAL 10 - 35
Oct 2, 2022 BUF @ BAL 23 - 20
Jan 16, 2021 BAL @ BUF 3 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +94.0% more
Baltimore: 1.2 vs Buffalo: 0.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +29.9% more
Baltimore: 218.8 vs Buffalo: 153.2
Yards Per Play (L5) +20.1% more
Baltimore: 6.8 vs Buffalo: 5.5
Total Yards (L5) +16.8% more
Baltimore: 429.8 vs Buffalo: 357.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 29.7 40
BUF Score 24.9 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.7 / 24.2 29.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 204.2 / 211.1 389.0 / 194.0
Rushing Yards 153.2 / 218.8 108.0 / 238.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.6 0.47 / 0.55
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 357.4 / 429.8 497.0 / 432.0
Turnovers 0.1 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 6.8 6.4 / 8.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
BUF
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.0
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
BAL
BUF
BAL
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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