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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

38-20  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, May 31 • 4:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

30-28  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Javier Baez
STARTING PITCHER

Javier Baez

#28 | Shortstop
@
Michael Wacha
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Wacha

#52 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Javier Baez None-None -- -- -- --
Michael Wacha None-None 2.88 -- 7.0 6
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.88
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 7.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 6
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
ROYALS
100%
TIGERS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

64.7%

Royals Cover

35.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

19.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

17.5%

KC By 1-2 runs

15.0%

KC By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.31
DETROIT
2.8
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Royals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 DET @ KC 7 - 11
Aug 22, 2026 DET @ KC 1 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 DET @ KC 2 - 5
Jul 26, 2026 KC @ DET 5 - 4
Jul 25, 2026 KC @ DET 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.720 ▲
OPS
.718
181 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +63.0% more
Detroit: 1.3 vs Kansas City: 0.5
Home Runs (Season) +6.1% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Runs per Game (Season) +4.5% more
Detroit: 4.5 vs Kansas City: 4.3
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.4%
Detroit: 32.0% vs Kansas City: 31.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 4.3 0
KC Score 2.8 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.6 / 8.3 4.0 / 2.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 9.0 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.1 / 14.1 5.0 / 2.0
Walks 3.2 / 3.4 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
90%MONEY10%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
DET
KC
DET
ML
55% 89-72
54% 86-73
56% 90-70
54% 87-73
ATS
57% 91-70
64% 101-58
58% 93-67
57% 91-69
TTL
58% 90-64-7
46% 69-81-9
54% 83-70-7
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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