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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

9-47  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, May 30 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

34-22  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Jimmy Herget
STARTING PITCHER

Jimmy Herget

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Francisco Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Francisco Alvarez

#4 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jimmy Herget None-None 3.21 -- 1.0 1
Francisco Alvarez None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.21 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
100%
📊
METS
0%
ROCKIES --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (New York)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

41.8%

Mets Cover

58.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

COL By 1-2 runs

16.7%

COL By 3-4 runs

11.1%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.5%

NYM By 3-4 runs

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.8
COLORADO
3.63
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
COLORADO
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
D
Sim Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 7, 2026 NYM @ COL 2 - 6
May 6, 2026 NYM @ COL 10 - 5
May 4, 2026 NYM @ COL 4 - 2
Apr 26, 2026 COL @ NYM 3 - 1
Apr 24, 2026 COL @ NYM 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.739 ▲
OPS
.705
180
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +45.0% more
New York: 0.8 vs Colorado: 0.4
Walks (L5) +44.0% more
New York: 5.3 vs Colorado: 3.7
Home Runs (L5) +44.0% more
New York: 1.0 vs Colorado: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +37.0% more
New York: 12.3 vs Colorado: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 2.8 2
NYM Score 3.6 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 6.7 9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.5 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 6.4 11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 12.3 / 9.0 20.0 / 10.0
Walks 5.3 / 3.7 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
2%MONEY98%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
NYM Advantage
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
COL
NYM
COL
ML
50% 79-80
60% 97-64
48% 76-83
55% 88-73
ATS
58% 93-66
60% 97-64
49% 78-81
52% 83-78
TTL
55% 80-66-13
60% 93-62-6
51% 74-72-13
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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