DETROIT
TIGERSDET
37-20 | Road
7
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
30-27 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brenan Hanifee
#75 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Daniel Lynch IV
#41 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenan Hanifee | None-None | 3.25 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Daniel Lynch IV | None-None | 2.00 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.25
ERA
Ldr 2.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
ROYALS
100%
TIGERS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
19.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
18.0%
KC By 1-2 runs
14.2%
KC By 3-4 runs
8.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
4.42
DETROIT
Kansas City
2.65
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
Royals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
DET @ KC
7 - 11
Aug 22, 2026
DET @ KC
1 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
DET @ KC
2 - 5
Jul 26, 2026
KC @ DET
5 - 4
Jul 25, 2026
KC @ DET
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.720
▲
OPS
.718
181
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+21.0% more
Detroit: 0.4
vs
Kansas City: 0.2
Home Runs (Season)
+6.1% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Kansas City: 170.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+4.5% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
Kansas City: 4.3
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.4%
Detroit: 32.0%
vs
Kansas City: 31.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
4.4
7
KC Score
2.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.5
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 6.9
12.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.2 / 0.4
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 8.5
12.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
10.6 / 10.6
18.0 / 21.0
Walks
3.3 / 2.5
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
DET
KC
DET
ML
55%
89-72
54%
86-73
56%
90-70
54%
87-73
ATS
57%
91-70
64%
101-58
58%
93-67
57%
91-69
TTL
58%
90-64-7
46%
69-81-9
54%
83-70-7
46%
69-81-10
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