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MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

1-3  |  Road

94
FINAL
Wed, May 28 • 8:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

3-1  |  Home

124
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
TIMBERWOLVES --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.8
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.8 points (Oklahoma City)
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

28.1%

Thunder Cover

71.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -5.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

MIN By 1-7 points

17.3%

MIN By 8-14 points

7.1%

OKC By 1-7 points

26.9%

OKC By 8-14 points

24.0%

AI Model Projected Score
111.13
MINNESOTA
116.92
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
108
MINNESOTA
113
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.8
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 228.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 15, 2026 MIN @ OKC 103 - 116
Jan 29, 2026 OKC @ MIN 111 - 123
Dec 19, 2025 OKC @ MIN 107 - 112
Nov 26, 2025 MIN @ OKC 105 - 113
May 28, 2025 MIN @ OKC 94 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +64.1% more
Oklahoma City: 10.7 vs Minnesota: 6.5
Free Throw % (L5) +3.1%
Oklahoma City: 79.8% vs Minnesota: 76.7%
Turnovers (L5) +26.5% more
Minnesota: 17.5 vs Oklahoma City: 12.9
Assists (L5) +12.4% more
Minnesota: 27.1 vs Oklahoma City: 23.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 111.1 94
OKC Score 116.9 124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.9 / 40.6 40.0 / 35.3
Assists 23.7 / 27.1 26.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.9 / 4.4 8.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 49.6 52.3 / 41.2
Free Throw % 79.8 / 76.7 85.7 / 80.0
Rebounding 38.5 / 43.0 46.0 / 39.0
Steals 10.7 / 6.5 14.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 17.5 16.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
MIN
OKC
MIN
ML
70% 80-34
54% 63-53
48% 46-49
54% 50-43
ATS
73% 83-30-1
58% 67-49
48% 46-49
54% 50-43
TTL
67% 76-38
63% 72-43-1
100% 95-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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