MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
21-32 | Road
10
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
31-22 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Wandy Peralta
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 5.21 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Wandy Peralta | None-None | 4.56 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.21
ERA
Ldr 4.56
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
100%
PADRES
0%
MARLINS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
MIA By 1-2 runs
17.9%
MIA By 3-4 runs
12.7%
SD By 1-2 runs
18.9%
SD By 3-4 runs
14.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4
MIAMI
San Diego
4.31
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Padres (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
MIA @ SD
3 - 7
Sep 19, 2026
MIA @ SD
6 - 7
Sep 18, 2026
MIA @ SD
2 - 8
Jul 26, 2026
SD @ MIA
5 - 3
Jul 25, 2026
SD @ MIA
7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.727
OPS
▲
.925
168
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+109.0% more
San Diego: 1.6
vs
Miami: 0.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+36.1% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Miami: 4.4
Total Bases (L5)
+20.0% more
San Diego: 14.8
vs
Miami: 12.3
OPS (Season)
+19.8%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Miami: 72.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.0
10
SD Score
4.3
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 1.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.7 / 9.1
9.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.5
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 7.9
5.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
14.8 / 12.3
14.0 / 25.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.5
1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
MIA
SD
MIA
ML
51%
85-83
48%
78-84
51%
85-82
55%
88-72
ATS
54%
91-77
56%
91-71
55%
92-75
54%
86-74
TTL
51%
82-80-6
56%
88-69-5
54%
86-74-6
53%
82-73-5
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