ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
31-24 | Road
6
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
19-35 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Kittredge
#39 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | None-None | 2.08 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Andrew Kittredge | None-None | 2.25 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.08 Ldr
ERA
2.25
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
ORIOLES
100%
CARDINALS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
17.9%
BAL By 1-2 runs
14.4%
BAL By 3-4 runs
8.6%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
5.34
ST. LOUIS
Baltimore
3.64
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 27, 2026
BAL @ STL
5 - 7
Aug 26, 2026
BAL @ STL
8 - 7
Aug 25, 2026
BAL @ STL
13 - 1
May 28, 2025
STL @ BAL
6 - 4
May 27, 2025
STL @ BAL
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.691
OPS
▲
.711
167
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+26.0% more
St. Louis: 0.8
vs
Baltimore: 0.5
Home Runs (L5)
+11.6% more
St. Louis: 1.1
vs
Baltimore: 1.0
Total Bases (L5)
+8.2% more
St. Louis: 14.8
vs
Baltimore: 13.6
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.5%
St. Louis: 23.9%
vs
Baltimore: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
5.3
6
BAL Score
3.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.8
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.9 / 8.9
12.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.1
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 8.4
16.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 14.8
15.0 / 19.0
Walks
2.6 / 2.0
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
STL
BAL
STL
ML
53%
83-73
53%
85-74
57%
90-69
52%
84-77
ATS
61%
95-60-1
56%
89-70
57%
90-68-1
53%
85-76
TTL
54%
81-70-5
46%
68-81-10
51%
78-75-6
50%
76-75-10
Contextual Game News
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MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
Yankees Fan Ejected After Interfering with Potential Game-Tying …
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