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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

9-46  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, May 28 • 8:05 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

34-21  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Jimmy Herget
STARTING PITCHER

Jimmy Herget

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Matthew Boyd
STARTING PITCHER

Matthew Boyd

#16 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jimmy Herget None-None 3.33 -- 0.2 --
Matthew Boyd None-None 3.08 -- 6.0 8
None-None W-L None-None
3.33 ERA Ldr 3.08
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
100%
📊
CUBS
0%
ROCKIES --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Chicago)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

34.2%

Cubs Cover

65.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

COL By 1-2 runs

14.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

8.8%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.94
COLORADO
5.57
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
COLORADO
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 COL @ CHC 6 - 8
Jun 16, 2026 COL @ CHC 5 - 2
Jun 15, 2026 COL @ CHC 4 - 5
Jun 11, 2026 CHC @ COL 9 - 3
Jun 10, 2026 CHC @ COL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.739 ▲
OPS
.374
180 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +39.4% more
Chicago: 14.7 vs Colorado: 10.5
Hits (L5) +37.7% more
Chicago: 9.7 vs Colorado: 7.0
Home Runs (L5) +28.0% more
Chicago: 1.1 vs Colorado: 0.8
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
Colorado: 180.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.9 1
CHC Score 5.6 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.7 / 7.0 6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 8.1 11.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 14.7 / 10.5 10.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.1 / 4.0 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
2%MONEY98%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
COL
CHC
COL
ML
58% 93-68
60% 97-64
51% 82-79
55% 88-73
ATS
61% 97-63-1
60% 97-64
47% 75-85-1
52% 83-78
TTL
52% 81-74-6
60% 93-62-6
46% 72-83-6
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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