OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
2-1 | Road
128
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
1-2 | Home
126
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
THUNDER
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.1
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.1 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -5.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
OKC By 1-7 points
18.4%
OKC By 8-14 points
7.9%
MIN By 1-7 points
27.2%
MIN By 8-14 points
23.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
109.78
OKLAHOMA CITY
Minnesota
114.85
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
108
OKLAHOMA CITY
Minnesota
112
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.1
D
Sim
Timberwolves (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 224.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
MIN @ OKC
103 - 116
Jan 29, 2026
OKC @ MIN
111 - 123
Dec 19, 2025
OKC @ MIN
107 - 112
Nov 26, 2025
MIN @ OKC
105 - 113
May 28, 2025
MIN @ OKC
94 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+48.1% more
Minnesota: 5.1
vs
Oklahoma City: 3.4
Turnovers (L5)
+20.1% more
Minnesota: 14.8
vs
Oklahoma City: 12.3
Rebounding (L5)
+11.0% more
Minnesota: 44.1
vs
Oklahoma City: 39.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.2%
Minnesota: 38.9%
vs
Oklahoma City: 33.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
109.8
128
MIN Score
114.9
126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.9 / 33.7
43.9 / 43.2
Assists
25.6 / 24.5
30.0 / 22.0
Blocks
5.1 / 3.4
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.8 / 45.9
51.2 / 50.5
Free Throw %
75.7 / 81.5
78.6 / 76.2
Rebounding
44.1 / 39.7
41.0 / 36.0
Steals
5.8 / 9.1
8.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 12.3
23.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
Advantage
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
OKC
MIN
OKC
ML
54%
63-53
70%
80-34
54%
50-43
48%
46-49
ATS
58%
67-49
73%
83-30-1
54%
50-43
48%
46-49
TTL
63%
72-43-1
67%
76-38
100%
93-0
100%
95-0
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