MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
21-30 | Road
3
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
29-22 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Gibson
#58 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Adrian Morejon
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Gibson | None-None | 0.71 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Adrian Morejon | None-None | 3.09 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.71 Ldr
ERA
3.09
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
0%
PADRES
100%
MARLINS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.5%
MIA By 3-4 runs
15.8%
SD By 1-2 runs
16.8%
SD By 3-4 runs
11.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4.58
MIAMI
San Diego
3.77
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
D
Sim
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
MIA @ SD
3 - 7
Sep 19, 2026
MIA @ SD
6 - 7
Sep 18, 2026
MIA @ SD
2 - 8
Jul 26, 2026
SD @ MIA
5 - 3
Jul 25, 2026
SD @ MIA
7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.727
OPS
▲
.925
168
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.6% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Hits (L5)
+23.0% more
Miami: 9.4
vs
San Diego: 7.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+8.3% more
Miami: 10.4
vs
San Diego: 9.5
Home Runs (L5)
+94.0% more
San Diego: 1.6
vs
Miami: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.6
3
SD Score
3.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.3 / 9.4
5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 10.4
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 13.5
9.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.3
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
MIA
SD
MIA
ML
51%
85-83
48%
78-84
51%
85-82
55%
88-72
ATS
54%
91-77
56%
91-71
55%
92-75
54%
86-74
TTL
51%
82-80-6
56%
88-69-5
54%
86-74-6
53%
82-73-5
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