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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

17-34  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sun, May 25 • 1:35 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

27-27  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Andrew Kittredge
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Kittredge

#39 | Relief Pitcher
@
Greg Weissert
STARTING PITCHER

Greg Weissert

#57 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Andrew Kittredge None-None 3.00 -- 1.0 2
Greg Weissert None-None 3.13 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.00 Ldr ERA 3.13
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
100%
📊
RED SOX
0%
ORIOLES --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Boston)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

48.4%

Red Sox Cover

51.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BAL By 1-2 runs

18.1%

BAL By 3-4 runs

13.1%

BOS By 1-2 runs

18.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

14.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.55
BALTIMORE
3.71
BOSTON
Simulated Score
4
BALTIMORE
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim Red Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 BOS @ BAL 3 - 1
Sep 5, 2026 BOS @ BAL 5 - 0
Sep 4, 2026 BOS @ BAL 1 - 0
Sep 3, 2026 BOS @ BAL 6 - 5
Jul 22, 2026 BAL @ BOS 5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Boston BOS
161 ▲
Games Played
2
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.234 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.711 ▲
OPS
.409
199 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +158.0% more
Boston: 2.1 vs Baltimore: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5) +42.4% more
Boston: 9.7 vs Baltimore: 6.8
Total Bases (L5) +34.6% more
Boston: 18.9 vs Baltimore: 14.0
Home Runs (Season) +99.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 3.6 5
BOS Score 3.7 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 1.1 3.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.9 / 9.9 10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 2.1 / 0.5 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.7 / 6.8 5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 18.9 / 14.0 12.0 / 15.0
Walks 4.1 / 4.6 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
3%MONEY97%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
BAL
BOS
BAL
ML
50% 80-80
53% 83-73
47% 76-87
57% 90-69
ATS
58% 93-67
61% 95-60-1
48% 79-84
57% 90-68-1
TTL
46% 72-83-5
54% 81-70-5
47% 74-83-6
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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