PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
34-18 | Road
4
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
22-31 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jesus Luzardo
#44 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Hogan Harris
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | None-None | 2.15 | -- | 7.0 | 10 |
| Hogan Harris | None-None | 3.63 | -- | 2.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.15 Ldr
ERA
3.63
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.2
10 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
ATHLETICS
100%
PHILLIES
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.1%
PHI By 3-4 runs
19.2%
ATH By 1-2 runs
12.1%
ATH By 3-4 runs
6.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
6.26
PHILADELPHIA
Athletics
3.75
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.5
D
Sim
Phillies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 7, 2026
ATH @ PHI
12 - 1
May 6, 2026
ATH @ PHI
3 - 6
May 5, 2026
ATH @ PHI
1 - 9
May 25, 2025
PHI @ ATH
4 - 5
May 24, 2025
PHI @ ATH
9 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Athletics
ATH
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.724
▲
OPS
.719
3
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+33.1% more
Philadelphia: 1.8
vs
Athletics: 1.2
Walks (L5)
+23.5% more
Philadelphia: 4.8
vs
Athletics: 3.7
Errors (L5)
+22.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.8
vs
Athletics: 0.6
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.6%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Athletics: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
6.3
4
ATH Score
3.8
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.8 / 9.4
11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.3 / 10.5
6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
16.4 / 16.6
17.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.7 / 4.8
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATH
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
PHI
ATH
PHI
ML
59%
95-67
59%
97-67
54%
87-74
49%
80-84
ATS
52%
84-78
65%
107-57
50%
81-80
51%
83-81
TTL
54%
84-73-5
57%
88-67-9
42%
66-90-5
51%
78-76-9
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