SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
28-22 | Road
5
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
25-26 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Adrian Morejon
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Lee
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Morejon | None-None | 3.22 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Dylan Lee | None-None | 2.86 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.22
ERA
Ldr 2.86
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
0%
BRAVES
100%
PADRES
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
17.1%
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.5%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.7%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
5.18
SAN DIEGO
Atlanta
3.86
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 23, 2026
SD @ ATL
5 - 6
Jul 22, 2026
SD @ ATL
6 - 7
Jul 21, 2026
SD @ ATL
8 - 3
Jul 20, 2026
SD @ ATL
2 - 3
Jun 24, 2026
ATL @ SD
2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
5.00
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
.925
▲
OPS
.757
4
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+40.0% more
San Diego: 0.6
vs
Atlanta: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+27.8% more
San Diego: 8.8
vs
Atlanta: 6.4
OPS (Season)
+16.8%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Atlanta: 75.7%
Runs per Game (Season)
+16.7% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Atlanta: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
5.2
5
ATL Score
3.9
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.2 / 6.4
7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.9
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
6.4 / 8.8
13.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
16.0 / 10.6
10.0 / 20.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.6
0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
SD
ATL
SD
ML
46%
77-90
51%
85-83
54%
90-78
51%
85-82
ATS
57%
96-71
54%
91-77
52%
87-81
55%
92-75
TTL
53%
83-73-11
51%
82-80-6
49%
76-80-11
54%
86-74-6
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