Home / NFL Projections NFL / Dolphins @ Packers MIA @ GB

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

5-6  |  Road

17
FINAL
Thu, Nov 28 • 8:20 PM ET
Lambeau Field
View Odds Details →

GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

8-3  |  Home

30
Key Game
Zayne Anderson
KEY GAME

Zayne Anderson

#23 | Safety
@
Daniel Whelan
KEY GAME

Daniel Whelan

#19 | Punter
Player
Zayne Anderson None-None
Daniel Whelan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
24%
📊
PACKERS
76%
DOLPHINS --
PACKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.9
GREEN BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.9 points (Green Bay)
DolphinsMIA (-3.5) 0 PackersGB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

33.6%

Packers Cover

66.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GB -5.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GB)

MIA By 1-6 points

13.6%

MIA By 7-13 points

10.5%

GB By 1-6 points

16.7%

GB By 7-13 points

18.9%

AI Model Projected Score
20.11
MIAMI
26.03
GREEN BAY
Simulated Score
20
MIAMI
27
GREEN BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Packers Win
76% Win Prob
B
Sim Packers Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Packers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.9
D
Sim Packers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 46.1
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 28, 2024 MIA @ GB 17 - 30
Dec 25, 2022 GB @ MIA 26 - 20
Nov 11, 2018 MIA @ GB 12 - 31
Oct 12, 2014 GB @ MIA 27 - 24
Oct 17, 2010 MIA @ GB 23 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +51.9% more
Green Bay: 143.0 vs Miami: 94.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +15.5% more
Green Bay: 6.3 vs Miami: 5.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Miami: 0.5 vs Green Bay: 0.3
Net Passing Yards (L5) +10.6% more
Miami: 246.5 vs Green Bay: 220.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 20.1 17
GB Score 26.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.8 / 21.9 19.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 220.4 / 246.5 274.0 / 336.0
Rushing Yards 143.0 / 94.1 114.0 / 39.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 363.4 / 340.6 388.0 / 375.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.3 / 5.4 7.3 / 5.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
GB Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
GB
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
GB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GB
MIA
GB
MIA
ML
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
0% 0-3-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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