OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
2-0 | Road
101
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
0-2 | Home
143
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
THUNDER
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
OKC By 1-7 points
25.8%
OKC By 8-14 points
16.1%
MIN By 1-7 points
24.9%
MIN By 8-14 points
14.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
112.13
OKLAHOMA CITY
Minnesota
111.67
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
108
OKLAHOMA CITY
Minnesota
112
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Thunder
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Thunder (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -0.5
D
Sim
Timberwolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 223.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
MIN @ OKC
103 - 116
Jan 29, 2026
OKC @ MIN
111 - 123
Dec 19, 2025
OKC @ MIN
107 - 112
Nov 26, 2025
MIN @ OKC
105 - 113
May 28, 2025
MIN @ OKC
94 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+48.8% more
Oklahoma City: 11.1
vs
Minnesota: 5.7
Assists (L5)
+14.5% more
Oklahoma City: 27.3
vs
Minnesota: 23.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.9%
Oklahoma City: 48.5%
vs
Minnesota: 44.6%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.3%
Oklahoma City: 77.6%
vs
Minnesota: 75.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
112.1
101
MIN Score
111.7
143
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 34.7
50.0 / 31.8
Assists
23.4 / 27.3
30.0 / 19.0
Blocks
6.1 / 3.6
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 48.5
57.3 / 40.7
Free Throw %
75.3 / 77.6
76.5 / 89.5
Rebounding
41.1 / 44.1
50.0 / 31.0
Steals
5.7 / 11.1
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
17.2 / 11.0
10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
Advantage
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
OKC
MIN
OKC
ML
54%
63-53
70%
80-34
54%
50-43
48%
46-49
ATS
58%
67-49
73%
83-30-1
54%
50-43
48%
46-49
TTL
63%
72-43-1
67%
76-38
100%
93-0
100%
95-0
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