Home / NBA Projections NBA / Bucks @ Thunder MIL @ OKC

MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

26-21  |  Road

96
FINAL
Mon, Feb 3 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

38-9  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
BUCKS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.5
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (Oklahoma City)
BucksMIL (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bucks Cover

29.0%

Thunder Cover

71.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

MIL By 1-7 points

17.7%

MIL By 8-14 points

7.4%

OKC By 1-7 points

27.1%

OKC By 8-14 points

23.7%

AI Model Projected Score
119.54
MILWAUKEE
125.06
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
115
MILWAUKEE
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.5
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 244.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 12, 2026 MIL @ OKC 110 - 93
Jan 21, 2026 OKC @ MIL 122 - 102
Oct 14, 2025 OKC @ MIL 116 - 112
Mar 16, 2025 OKC @ MIL 121 - 105
Feb 3, 2025 MIL @ OKC 96 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +34.4% more
Oklahoma City: 7.5 vs Milwaukee: 5.6
Rebounding (L5) +25.8% more
Oklahoma City: 52.4 vs Milwaukee: 41.6
Free Throw % (L5) +9.4%
Oklahoma City: 77.5% vs Milwaukee: 68.0%
Blocks (L5) +17.3% more
Milwaukee: 5.3 vs Oklahoma City: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 119.5 96
OKC Score 125.1 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 38.2 39.0 / 33.3
Assists 28.3 / 28.5 28.0 / 24.0
Blocks 4.3 / 5.3 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.1 / 48.8 51.5 / 37.6
Free Throw % 77.5 / 68.0 87.5 / 61.9
Rebounding 52.4 / 41.6 55.0 / 37.0
Steals 7.5 / 5.6 9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 11.6 17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0 (39.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4% Total +/-: +1.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
MIL
OKC
MIL
ML
70% 80-34
64% 61-35
48% 46-49
60% 49-32
ATS
73% 83-30-1
68% 65-31
48% 46-49
60% 49-32
TTL
67% 76-38
55% 53-43
100% 95-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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