OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
44-9 | Road
101
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
30-25 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
THUNDER
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
OKC By 1-7 points
21.7%
OKC By 8-14 points
10.8%
MIN By 1-7 points
27.2%
MIN By 8-14 points
20.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
119.39
OKLAHOMA CITY
Minnesota
122.31
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
Minnesota
115
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.9
D
Sim
Timberwolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 241.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
MIN @ OKC
103 - 116
Jan 29, 2026
OKC @ MIN
111 - 123
Dec 19, 2025
OKC @ MIN
107 - 112
Nov 26, 2025
MIN @ OKC
105 - 113
May 28, 2025
MIN @ OKC
94 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+21.6% more
Minnesota: 14.0
vs
Oklahoma City: 11.5
Blocks (L5)
+9.9% more
Minnesota: 5.6
vs
Oklahoma City: 5.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.3%
Minnesota: 81.1%
vs
Oklahoma City: 76.8%
Steals (L5)
+36.6% more
Oklahoma City: 10.4
vs
Minnesota: 6.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
119.4
101
MIN Score
122.3
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.4 / 39.7
26.1 / 24.1
Assists
24.1 / 25.9
28.0 / 25.0
Blocks
5.6 / 5.1
2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
43.1 / 49.0
42.4 / 42.0
Free Throw %
81.1 / 76.8
90.9 / 83.3
Rebounding
49.1 / 46.2
54.0 / 49.0
Steals
6.6 / 10.4
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 11.5
10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
Advantage
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
OKC
MIN
OKC
ML
54%
63-53
70%
80-34
54%
50-43
48%
46-49
ATS
58%
67-49
73%
83-30-1
54%
50-43
48%
46-49
TTL
63%
72-43-1
67%
76-38
100%
93-0
100%
95-0
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