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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

55-12  |  Road

121
FINAL
Sun, Mar 16 • 9:00 PM ET
Fiserv Forum
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

38-28  |  Home

105
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
BUCKS
100%
THUNDER --
BUCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
248.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 BucksMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

58.6%

Bucks Cover

41.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

26.9%

OKC By 8-14 points

18.8%

MIL By 1-7 points

22.8%

MIL By 8-14 points

11.9%

AI Model Projected Score
125.53
OKLAHOMA CITY
123.36
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
113
OKLAHOMA CITY
116
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bucks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.2
D
Sim Bucks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 248.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 12, 2026 MIL @ OKC 110 - 93
Jan 21, 2026 OKC @ MIL 122 - 102
Oct 14, 2025 OKC @ MIL 116 - 112
Mar 16, 2025 OKC @ MIL 121 - 105
Feb 3, 2025 MIL @ OKC 96 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +33.7% more
Oklahoma City: 6.6 vs Milwaukee: 4.4
Steals (L5) +13.0% more
Oklahoma City: 9.1 vs Milwaukee: 7.9
Assists (L5) +21.9% more
Milwaukee: 27.2 vs Oklahoma City: 22.3
Turnovers (L5) +15.5% more
Milwaukee: 15.1 vs Oklahoma City: 13.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 125.5 121
MIL Score 123.4 105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.7 / 34.9 38.2 / 34.5
Assists 27.2 / 22.3 21.0 / 30.0
Blocks 4.4 / 6.6 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 51.0 / 48.5 39.8 / 51.7
Free Throw % 83.9 / 80.5 78.8 / 76.0
Rebounding 46.2 / 44.1 34.0 / 50.0
Steals 7.9 / 9.1 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 15.1 / 13.1 9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
MIL
32-50-0 (39.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
MIL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
OKC
MIL
OKC
ML
64% 61-35
70% 80-34
60% 49-32
48% 46-49
ATS
68% 65-31
73% 83-30-1
60% 49-32
48% 46-49
TTL
55% 53-43
67% 76-38
100% 81-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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