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MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

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88
FINAL
Tue, May 20 • 8:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

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114
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
TIMBERWOLVES --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.3
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.3 points (Oklahoma City)
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

29.8%

Thunder Cover

70.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -5.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

MIN By 1-7 points

18.1%

MIN By 8-14 points

7.7%

OKC By 1-7 points

27.1%

OKC By 8-14 points

23.4%

AI Model Projected Score
110.93
MINNESOTA
116.22
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
108
MINNESOTA
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.3
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 227.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 15, 2026 MIN @ OKC 103 - 116
Jan 29, 2026 OKC @ MIN 111 - 123
Dec 19, 2025 OKC @ MIN 107 - 112
Nov 26, 2025 MIN @ OKC 105 - 113
May 28, 2025 MIN @ OKC 94 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +33.5% more
Oklahoma City: 11.7 vs Minnesota: 8.8
Rebounding (L5) +9.6% more
Oklahoma City: 44.6 vs Minnesota: 40.7
Turnovers (L5) +40.0% more
Minnesota: 18.7 vs Oklahoma City: 11.2
Assists (L5) +10.9% more
Minnesota: 28.6 vs Oklahoma City: 25.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 110.9 88
OKC Score 116.2 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.3 / 39.3 52.4 / 29.4
Assists 25.4 / 28.6 27.0 / 18.0
Blocks 4.4 / 4.9 3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 51.8 50.0 / 34.9
Free Throw % 74.7 / 76.1 80.8 / 71.4
Rebounding 44.6 / 40.7 46.0 / 42.0
Steals 11.7 / 8.8 13.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 18.7 15.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
MIN
OKC
MIN
ML
70% 80-34
54% 63-53
48% 46-49
54% 50-43
ATS
73% 83-30-1
58% 67-49
48% 46-49
54% 50-43
TTL
67% 76-38
63% 72-43-1
100% 95-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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