MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
0-1 | Road
103
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
1-0 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
THUNDER
0%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.8
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.8 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -5.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
MIN By 1-7 points
17.2%
MIN By 8-14 points
7.0%
OKC By 1-7 points
26.9%
OKC By 8-14 points
24.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
108.98
MINNESOTA
Oklahoma City
114.8
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
Minnesota
108
MINNESOTA
Oklahoma City
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.8
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 223.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
MIN @ OKC
103 - 116
Jan 29, 2026
OKC @ MIN
111 - 123
Dec 19, 2025
OKC @ MIN
107 - 112
Nov 26, 2025
MIN @ OKC
105 - 113
May 28, 2025
MIN @ OKC
94 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+61.6% more
Oklahoma City: 12.1
vs
Minnesota: 7.5
Rebounding (L5)
+9.6% more
Oklahoma City: 45.1
vs
Minnesota: 41.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Oklahoma City: 38.3%
vs
Minnesota: 36.0%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.2%
Oklahoma City: 76.8%
vs
Minnesota: 74.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
109.0
103
OKC Score
114.8
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 36.0
27.3 / 28.2
Assists
26.0 / 25.0
30.0 / 20.0
Blocks
3.9 / 5.6
3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
47.7 / 46.2
50.0 / 41.4
Free Throw %
76.8 / 74.5
79.2 / 76.9
Rebounding
45.1 / 41.2
42.0 / 41.0
Steals
12.1 / 7.5
9.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 18.8
8.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC
Advantage
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
MIN
OKC
MIN
ML
70%
80-34
54%
63-53
48%
46-49
54%
50-43
ATS
73%
83-30-1
58%
67-49
48%
46-49
54%
50-43
TTL
67%
76-38
63%
72-43-1
100%
95-0
100%
93-0
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