TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
38-20-3 | Road
2
VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
36-18-6 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Adin Hill
#33 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 2.67 | 0.889 | -- |
| Adin Hill | None-None | 2.00 | 0.935 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.67
GAA
Ldr 2.00
0.889
Save %
Ldr 0.935
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
49%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
51%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
42%
Under 0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1 goal
19.6%
TOR By 2-3 goals
26.9%
VGK By 1 goal
13.6%
VGK By 2-3 goals
11.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.96
TORONTO
Vegas
3.21
VEGAS
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Vegas
4
VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Knights
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Maple Leafs (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.8
A
Sim
Golden Knights (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 23, 2026
VGK @ TOR
6 - 3
Jan 15, 2026
TOR @ VGK
5 - 6
Mar 5, 2025
TOR @ VGK
2 - 5
Nov 20, 2024
VGK @ TOR
0 - 3
Feb 27, 2024
VGK @ TOR
6 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+22.4% more
Toronto: 5.0
vs
Vegas: 3.9
Hits (L5)
+22.4% more
Toronto: 22.4
vs
Vegas: 17.4
Blocked Shots (L5)
+18.7% more
Toronto: 15.9
vs
Vegas: 12.9
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.9%
Toronto: 57.8%
vs
Vegas: 50.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.0
2
VGK Score
3.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.9 / 15.9
14.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
50.9 / 57.8
36.9 / 63.1
Hits
17.4 / 22.4
26.0 / 39.0
Power Play %
37.8 / 24.2
33.3 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
29.2 / 27.1
25.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
3.9 / 5.0
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
TOR
VGK
TOR
ML
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
50%
2-2
0%
0-4
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
100%
4-0
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
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