EDMONTON
OILERSEDM
0-0-0 | Road
4
VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
0-0-0 | Home
2
AI Model Win Probability
OILERS
50%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
50%
OILERS
--
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
EDMONTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
â–˛ Edge: +0.6 points (Edmonton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around EDM -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EDM)
EDM By 1 goal
19.4%
EDM By 2-3 goals
25.3%
VGK By 1 goal
14.4%
VGK By 2-3 goals
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Edmonton
2.55
EDMONTON
Vegas
1.95
VEGAS
Simulated Score
Edmonton
3
EDMONTON
Vegas
4
VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Oilers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Knights
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
đź‘‘ Top Selection
AI
Oilers (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.6
A
Sim
Golden Knights (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
đź‘‘ Top Selection
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 4.5
B
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 4, 2026
VGK @ EDM
5 - 1
Mar 26, 2026
EDM @ VGK
4 - 3
Dec 21, 2025
VGK @ EDM
3 - 4
May 14, 2025
EDM @ VGK
1 - 0
May 12, 2025
VGK @ EDM
0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+34.3%
Edmonton: 53.6%
vs
Vegas: 19.3%
Hits (L5)
+16.7% more
Edmonton: 36.5
vs
Vegas: 30.4
Shots on Goal (L5)
+13.5% more
Edmonton: 36.0
vs
Vegas: 31.2
Takeaways (L5)
+88.9% more
Vegas: 4.8
vs
Edmonton: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EDM Score
2.6
4
VGK Score
2.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
18.9 / 18.8
19.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
54.4 / 45.0
36.5 / 63.5
Hits
30.4 / 36.5
42.0 / 33.0
Power Play %
19.3 / 53.6
33.3 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
31.2 / 36.0
17.0 / 28.0
Takeaways
4.8 / 2.5
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
EDM
VGK
EDM
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
Contextual Game News
