EDMONTON
OILERSEDM
0-0-0 | Road
5
VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
0-0-0 | Home
4
AI Model Win Probability
OILERS
50%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
50%
OILERS
--
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
EDMONTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
â–˛ Edge: +0.3 points (Edmonton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around EDM -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EDM)
EDM By 1 goal
18.5%
EDM By 2-3 goals
21.5%
VGK By 1 goal
16.3%
VGK By 2-3 goals
15.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Edmonton
2.33
EDMONTON
Vegas
2.07
VEGAS
Simulated Score
Edmonton
3
EDMONTON
Vegas
4
VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Oilers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Knights
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
đź‘‘ Top Selection
AI
Oilers (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.3
A
Sim
Golden Knights (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
đź‘‘ Top Selection
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 4.4
B
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 4, 2026
VGK @ EDM
5 - 1
Mar 26, 2026
EDM @ VGK
4 - 3
Dec 21, 2025
VGK @ EDM
3 - 4
May 14, 2025
EDM @ VGK
1 - 0
May 12, 2025
VGK @ EDM
0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+20.7% more
Edmonton: 33.4
vs
Vegas: 26.5
Power Play % (L5)
+11.8%
Edmonton: 35.7%
vs
Vegas: 23.9%
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.7%
Edmonton: 51.2%
vs
Vegas: 48.5%
Takeaways (L5)
+63.4% more
Vegas: 3.8
vs
Edmonton: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EDM Score
2.3
5
VGK Score
2.1
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
18.9 / 18.2
24.0 / 29.0
Faceoff %
48.5 / 51.2
56.6 / 43.4
Hits
34.3 / 35.3
30.0 / 26.0
Power Play %
23.9 / 35.7
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.5 / 33.4
32.0 / 37.0
Takeaways
3.8 / 2.4
9.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
EDM
VGK
EDM
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
Contextual Game News
