VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
0-0-0 | Road
4
EDMONTON
OILERSEDM
0-0-0 | Home
3
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
50%
OILERS
50%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
OILERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
EDMONTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Edmonton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around EDM -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EDM)
VGK By 1 goal
14.6%
VGK By 2-3 goals
12.9%
EDM By 1 goal
19.3%
EDM By 2-3 goals
25.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Vegas
1.84
VEGAS
Edmonton
2.41
EDMONTON
Simulated Score
Vegas
2
VEGAS
Edmonton
3
EDMONTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Oilers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Oilers
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Oilers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.6
A
Sim
Oilers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 4.3
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 4, 2026
VGK @ EDM
5 - 1
Mar 26, 2026
EDM @ VGK
4 - 3
Dec 21, 2025
VGK @ EDM
3 - 4
May 14, 2025
EDM @ VGK
1 - 0
May 12, 2025
VGK @ EDM
0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+22.2% more
Edmonton: 34.6
vs
Vegas: 28.3
Takeaways (L5)
+53.8% more
Vegas: 5.6
vs
Edmonton: 2.6
Power Play % (L5)
+8.8%
Vegas: 32.6%
vs
Edmonton: 23.8%
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.6%
Vegas: 51.2%
vs
Edmonton: 48.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VGK Score
1.8
4
EDM Score
2.4
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
21.8 / 20.6
17.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
48.6 / 51.2
57.7 / 42.3
Hits
32.2 / 32.9
33.0 / 42.0
Power Play %
23.8 / 32.6
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
34.6 / 28.3
20.0 / 24.0
Takeaways
2.6 / 5.6
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EDM
VGK
EDM
VGK
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
