VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
0-0-0 | Road
0
EDMONTON
OILERSEDM
0-0-0 | Home
3
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
50%
OILERS
50%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
OILERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
92%
Under 0
8%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
EDMONTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
â–˛ Edge: +0.4 points (Edmonton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around EDM -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EDM)
VGK By 1 goal
15.3%
VGK By 2-3 goals
14.1%
EDM By 1 goal
19.0%
EDM By 2-3 goals
23.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Vegas
2.06
VEGAS
Edmonton
2.51
EDMONTON
Simulated Score
Vegas
3
VEGAS
Edmonton
4
EDMONTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Oilers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Oilers
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
đź‘‘ Top Selection
AI
Oilers (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.4
A
Sim
Oilers (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
đź‘‘ Top Selection
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 4.6
A
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 4, 2026
VGK @ EDM
5 - 1
Mar 26, 2026
EDM @ VGK
4 - 3
Dec 21, 2025
VGK @ EDM
3 - 4
May 14, 2025
EDM @ VGK
1 - 0
May 12, 2025
VGK @ EDM
0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+11.8% more
Edmonton: 20.2
vs
Vegas: 18.1
Power Play % (L5)
+10.8%
Edmonton: 32.5%
vs
Vegas: 21.8%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+10.6% more
Edmonton: 29.7
vs
Vegas: 26.9
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.4%
Edmonton: 51.6%
vs
Vegas: 48.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VGK Score
2.1
0
EDM Score
2.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
20.2 / 18.1
20.0 / 18.0
Faceoff %
51.6 / 48.2
59.3 / 40.7
Hits
32.5 / 35.9
33.0 / 32.0
Power Play %
3254.0 / 2175.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
29.7 / 26.9
32.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
3.0 / 5.4
7.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EDM
VGK
EDM
VGK
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
