Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chiefs @ Eagles KC @ PHI

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

15-2  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sun, Feb 9 • 6:30 PM ET
Caesars Superdome
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

EAGLESPHI

14-3  |  Home

40
Key Game
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
@
Braden Mann
KEY GAME

Braden Mann

#10 | Punter
Player
Matt Araiza None-None
Braden Mann None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHIEFS
62%
📊
EAGLES
38%
CHIEFS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Philadelphia)
ChiefsKC (-3.5) 0 EaglesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chiefs Cover

45.1%

Eagles Cover

54.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PHI -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

KC By 1-6 points

15.8%

KC By 7-13 points

14.0%

PHI By 1-6 points

16.8%

PHI By 7-13 points

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
26.83
KANSAS CITY
28.55
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
24
KANSAS CITY
27
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Win
38% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.7
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 14, 2025 PHI @ KC 20 - 17
Feb 9, 2025 KC @ PHI 22 - 40
Nov 20, 2023 PHI @ KC 21 - 17
Feb 12, 2023 KC @ PHI 38 - 35
Oct 3, 2021 KC @ PHI 42 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +131.0% more
Philadelphia: 206.8 vs Kansas City: 89.5
Total Yards (L5) +29.6% more
Philadelphia: 375.0 vs Kansas City: 289.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +19.4% more
Philadelphia: 5.9 vs Kansas City: 4.9
First Downs (L5) +10.4% more
Philadelphia: 21.5 vs Kansas City: 19.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 26.8 22
PHI Score 28.6 40
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 19.4 21.0 / 12.0
Net Passing Yards 168.2 / 200.0 210.0 / 226.0
Rushing Yards 206.8 / 89.5 135.0 / 49.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 375.0 / 289.5 345.0 / 275.0
Turnovers 0.2 / 0.4 1.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.9 / 4.9 4.9 / 5.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
PHI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
PHI
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
PHI
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
KC
PHI
KC
ML
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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