CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
0-0 | Road
7
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
0-0 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Gaddis
#33 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Gaddis | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
50%
ROYALS
50%
GUARDIANS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.4%
CLE By 3-4 runs
15.6%
KC By 1-2 runs
17.0%
KC By 3-4 runs
11.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.06
CLEVELAND
Kansas City
2.35
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim
Royals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
CLE @ KC
2 - 3
Sep 26, 2026
CLE @ KC
11 - 5
Sep 25, 2026
CLE @ KC
12 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
KC @ CLE
1 - 11
Aug 29, 2026
KC @ CLE
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.26
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.316
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.696
OPS
▲
.718
162
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+54.0% more
Cleveland: 0.9
vs
Kansas City: 0.4
Home Runs (L5)
+42.0% more
Cleveland: 0.7
vs
Kansas City: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+36.1% more
Cleveland: 10.5
vs
Kansas City: 6.7
Total Bases (L5)
+29.9% more
Cleveland: 13.4
vs
Kansas City: 9.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.1
7
KC Score
2.4
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 8.9
7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 10.5
5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
9.4 / 13.4
12.0 / 18.0
Walks
5.7 / 3.5
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CLE
KC
CLE
ML
55%
89-72
54%
87-74
56%
90-70
49%
80-82
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
93-68
58%
93-67
59%
95-67
TTL
58%
90-64-7
55%
88-71-2
54%
83-70-7
43%
69-90-2
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