COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
0-0 | Road
2
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
0-0 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Freeland
#21 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Taylor Walls
#6 | Shortstop| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Freeland | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 6.0 | 7 |
| Taylor Walls | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
7
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
50%
RAYS
50%
ROCKIES
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
COL By 1-2 runs
17.2%
COL By 3-4 runs
11.7%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
3.25
COLORADO
Tampa Bay
3.88
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Colorado
8
COLORADO
Tampa Bay
6
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
C
Sim
Rockies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 14.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 5, 2026
TB @ COL
4 - 0
Aug 4, 2026
TB @ COL
9 - 7
Aug 3, 2026
TB @ COL
13 - 9
Mar 30, 2025
COL @ TB
4 - 6
Mar 29, 2025
COL @ TB
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.64
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.254
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.417
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.739
▲
OPS
.728
180
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+51.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.9
vs
Colorado: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+26.6% more
Tampa Bay: 9.7
vs
Colorado: 7.6
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.4%
Tampa Bay: 25.8%
vs
Colorado: 25.4%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.4%
Tampa Bay: 32.6%
vs
Colorado: 32.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
3.3
2
TB Score
3.9
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.5 / 7.5
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 7.6
12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
9.4 / 12.2
11.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.0 / 4.0
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
COL
TB
COL
ML
58%
95-68
60%
97-64
58%
95-68
55%
88-73
ATS
60%
97-66
60%
97-64
55%
90-73
52%
83-78
TTL
47%
73-81-9
60%
93-62-6
51%
78-75-10
50%
77-78-6
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