Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Royals CLE @ KC

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

0-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Mar 29 • 4:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

0-0  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Hunter Gaddis
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Gaddis

#33 | Relief Pitcher
@
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Hunter Gaddis None-None 0.00 -- 0.1 --
Lucas Erceg None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
50%
📊
ROYALS
50%
GUARDIANS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 67%
Under 0 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Cleveland)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

63.6%

Royals Cover

36.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CLE By 3-4 runs

17.2%

KC By 1-2 runs

15.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.55
CLEVELAND
2.16
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
3
CLEVELAND
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Guardians Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Guardians (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
C
Sim Royals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.7
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CLE @ KC 2 - 3
Sep 26, 2026 CLE @ KC 11 - 5
Sep 25, 2026 CLE @ KC 12 - 9
Aug 30, 2026 KC @ CLE 1 - 11
Aug 29, 2026 KC @ CLE 8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.316
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.696
OPS
▲ .718
162
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +40.6% more
Cleveland: 10.3 vs Kansas City: 6.1
Errors (L5) +36.0% more
Cleveland: 0.6 vs Kansas City: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +31.3% more
Cleveland: 15.0 vs Kansas City: 10.3
Home Runs (L5) +29.0% more
Cleveland: 0.8 vs Kansas City: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 3.6 3
KC Score 2.2 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.1 / 9.3 10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.1 / 10.3 5.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 10.3 / 15.0 14.0 / 9.0
Walks 4.8 / 2.7 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CLE
KC
CLE
ML
55% 89-72
54% 87-74
56% 90-70
49% 80-82
ATS
57% 91-70
58% 93-68
58% 93-67
59% 95-67
TTL
58% 90-64-7
55% 88-71-2
54% 83-70-7
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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