NEW YORK
METSNYM
0-0 | Road
1
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
0-0 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brett Baty
#7 | Third Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Baty | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Josh Hader | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
4.50
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
METS
50%
ASTROS
50%
METS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
71%
Under 0
29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
18.7%
NYM By 3-4 runs
14.1%
HOU By 1-2 runs
18.1%
HOU By 3-4 runs
13.0%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3.9
NEW YORK
Houston
3.72
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
C
Sim
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.6
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
HOU @ NYM
6 - 3
Aug 29, 2026
HOU @ NYM
2 - 6
Aug 28, 2026
HOU @ NYM
3 - 1
Mar 29, 2025
NYM @ HOU
1 - 2
Mar 28, 2025
NYM @ HOU
3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.395
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.705
▲
OPS
.582
204
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.0% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+55.0% more
New York: 0.8
vs
Houston: 0.2
Total Bases (L5)
+40.3% more
New York: 11.7
vs
Houston: 7.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+30.4% more
New York: 4.3
vs
Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
3.9
1
HOU Score
3.7
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.8 / 7.6
5.0 / 1.0
Home Runs
0.2 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.1 / 8.5
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
7.0 / 11.7
9.0 / 2.0
Walks
4.3 / 5.2
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
NYM
HOU
NYM
ML
50%
81-82
50%
79-80
47%
77-87
48%
76-83
ATS
56%
91-72
58%
93-66
55%
90-74
49%
78-81
TTL
45%
70-84-9
55%
80-66-13
45%
69-86-9
51%
74-72-13
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