Home / MLB Projections MLB / Braves @ Padres ATL @ SD

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

0-0  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Mar 29 • 7:15 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

0-0  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Drake Baldwin
STARTING PITCHER

Drake Baldwin

#30 | Catcher
@
Adrian Morejon
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Morejon

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Drake Baldwin None-None -- -- -- --
Adrian Morejon None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
50%
📊
PADRES
50%
BRAVES --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 47%
Under 0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (San Diego)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

45.7%

Padres Cover

54.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

ATL By 1-2 runs

17.6%

ATL By 3-4 runs

12.3%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.1%

SD By 3-4 runs

14.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.41
ATLANTA
4.84
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
ATLANTA
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 23, 2026 SD @ ATL 5 - 6
Jul 22, 2026 SD @ ATL 6 - 7
Jul 21, 2026 SD @ ATL 8 - 3
Jul 20, 2026 SD @ ATL 2 - 3
Jun 24, 2026 ATL @ SD 2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
San Diego SD
1
Games Played
▲ 2
5.00
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.433
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.757
OPS
▲ .925
1
Home Runs
▲ 4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +85.3% more
San Diego: 3.5 vs Atlanta: 1.9
Strikeouts (L5) +55.3% more
San Diego: 9.9 vs Atlanta: 6.4
Errors (L5) +34.0% more
San Diego: 0.4 vs Atlanta: 0.0
Hits (L5) +24.7% more
San Diego: 8.2 vs Atlanta: 6.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 4.4 0
SD Score 4.8 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 6.6 4.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.9 / 6.4 5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.6 / 11.6 5.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.5 / 1.9 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
ATL
SD
ATL
ML
51% 85-83
46% 77-90
51% 85-82
54% 90-78
ATS
54% 91-77
57% 96-71
55% 92-75
52% 87-81
TTL
51% 82-80-6
53% 83-73-11
54% 86-74-6
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 0 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 12 hours, 3 minutes ago
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 17 hours, 43 minutes ago