Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Royals CLE @ KC

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

0-0  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Mar 30 • 2:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

0-0  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Hunter Gaddis
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Gaddis

#33 | Relief Pitcher
@
Michael Wacha
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Wacha

#52 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Hunter Gaddis None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 2
Michael Wacha None-None 2.25 -- 4.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 2.25
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.0
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
50%
📊
ROYALS
50%
GUARDIANS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Cleveland)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

60.5%

Royals Cover

39.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

16.5%

KC By 1-2 runs

16.1%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.39
CLEVELAND
2.32
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
4
CLEVELAND
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Guardians Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Guardians (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
C
Sim Royals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CLE @ KC 2 - 3
Sep 26, 2026 CLE @ KC 11 - 5
Sep 25, 2026 CLE @ KC 12 - 9
Aug 30, 2026 KC @ CLE 1 - 11
Aug 29, 2026 KC @ CLE 8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.316
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.696
OPS
▲ .718
162
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +29.9% more
Cleveland: 8.2 vs Kansas City: 5.8
Errors (L5) +24.0% more
Cleveland: 0.4 vs Kansas City: 0.2
Home Runs (L5) +18.0% more
Cleveland: 0.9 vs Kansas City: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +11.2% more
Cleveland: 13.0 vs Kansas City: 11.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 3.4 6
KC Score 2.3 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.0 / 7.8 5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.9 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 5.8 / 8.2 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.5 / 13.0 9.0 / 21.0
Walks 4.5 / 2.5 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CLE
KC
CLE
ML
55% 89-72
54% 87-74
56% 90-70
49% 80-82
ATS
57% 91-70
58% 93-68
58% 93-67
59% 95-67
TTL
58% 90-64-7
55% 88-71-2
54% 83-70-7
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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