Home / MLB Projections MLB / Braves @ Padres ATL @ SD

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

0-0  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Mar 30 • 7:10 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

0-0  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
AJ Smith-Shawver
STARTING PITCHER

AJ Smith-Shawver

#32 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jeremiah Estrada
STARTING PITCHER

Jeremiah Estrada

#56 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
AJ Smith-Shawver None-None 4.50 -- 4.0 4
Jeremiah Estrada None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
4.50 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
4.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
50%
📊
PADRES
50%
BRAVES --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 42%
Under 0 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (San Diego)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

37.9%

Padres Cover

62.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

ATL By 1-2 runs

15.7%

ATL By 3-4 runs

10.0%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3.85
ATLANTA
5.08
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
4
ATLANTA
6
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
B
Sim Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 23, 2026 SD @ ATL 5 - 6
Jul 22, 2026 SD @ ATL 6 - 7
Jul 21, 2026 SD @ ATL 8 - 3
Jul 20, 2026 SD @ ATL 2 - 3
Jun 24, 2026 ATL @ SD 2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
San Diego SD
1
Games Played
▲ 2
5.00
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.433
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.757
OPS
▲ .925
1
Home Runs
▲ 4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +107.7% more
San Diego: 4.0 vs Atlanta: 1.9
Strikeouts (L5) +25.5% more
San Diego: 8.3 vs Atlanta: 6.6
Errors (L5) +22.0% more
San Diego: 0.2 vs Atlanta: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +20.0% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Atlanta: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 3.9 0
SD Score 5.1 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.8 / 6.1 9.0 / 1.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 6.6 8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 10.7 / 9.7 14.0 / 1.0
Walks 4.0 / 1.9 1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
ATL
SD
ATL
ML
51% 85-83
46% 77-90
51% 85-82
54% 90-78
ATS
54% 91-77
57% 96-71
55% 92-75
52% 87-81
TTL
51% 82-80-6
53% 83-73-11
54% 86-74-6
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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