NEW YORK
METSNYM
1-2 | Road
10
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
3-1 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Eric Wagaman
#39 | First Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Graham Pauley
#21 | Third Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Wagaman | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Graham Pauley | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
METS
14%
MARLINS
86%
METS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.0%
NYM By 3-4 runs
14.7%
MIA By 1-2 runs
17.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
12.5%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.52
NEW YORK
Miami
4.14
MIAMI
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Win
14% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
B
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
NYM @ MIA
15 - 14
Sep 8, 2026
NYM @ MIA
7 - 5
Sep 7, 2026
NYM @ MIA
9 - 4
Aug 2, 2026
MIA @ NYM
2 - 0
Aug 1, 2026
MIA @ NYM
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.705
OPS
▲
.727
204
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+17.6% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Errors (L5)
+104.0% more
Miami: 1.3
vs
New York: 0.2
Hits (L5)
+70.4% more
Miami: 9.2
vs
New York: 5.4
Total Bases (L5)
+61.6% more
Miami: 13.6
vs
New York: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
4.5
10
MIA Score
4.1
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 5.4
9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.5
2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 7.6
4.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 8.4
16.0 / 26.0
Walks
5.7 / 4.8
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
NYM
MIA
NYM
ML
48%
78-84
50%
79-80
55%
88-72
48%
76-83
ATS
56%
91-71
58%
93-66
54%
86-74
49%
78-81
TTL
56%
88-69-5
55%
80-66-13
53%
82-73-5
51%
74-72-13
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