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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

3-4  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Apr 4 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

2-4  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Jackson Holliday
STARTING PITCHER

Jackson Holliday

#7 | Second Base
@
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jackson Holliday None-None -- -- -- --
Lucas Erceg None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
60%
📊
ROYALS
40%
ORIOLES --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Baltimore)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

55.5%

Royals Cover

44.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-2 runs

19.2%

BAL By 3-4 runs

15.1%

KC By 1-2 runs

17.4%

KC By 3-4 runs

11.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.01
BALTIMORE
3.46
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
2
BALTIMORE
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Orioles Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Orioles (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim Royals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 KC @ BAL 2 - 8
Jul 11, 2026 KC @ BAL 1 - 6
Jul 10, 2026 KC @ BAL 3 - 5
Apr 22, 2026 BAL @ KC 8 - 6
Apr 21, 2026 BAL @ KC 5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Kansas City KC
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.711
OPS
▲ .718
199 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +39.0% more
Baltimore: 0.8 vs Kansas City: 0.4
Hits (L5) +24.7% more
Baltimore: 8.5 vs Kansas City: 6.4
Total Bases (L5) +20.9% more
Baltimore: 12.6 vs Kansas City: 10.0
Home Runs (Season) +14.6% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 4.0 2
KC Score 3.5 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.4 / 8.5 11.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.8 / 10.0 5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 12.6 14.0 / 8.0
Walks 4.9 / 2.9 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
BAL
KC
BAL
ML
55% 89-72
53% 83-73
56% 90-70
57% 90-69
ATS
57% 91-70
61% 95-60-1
58% 93-67
57% 90-68-1
TTL
58% 90-64-7
54% 81-70-5
54% 83-70-7
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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