TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
4-2 | Road
2
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
5-2 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jonny DeLuca
#21 | Right Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Burger
#21 | First Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonny DeLuca | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Jake Burger | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
44%
RANGERS
56%
RAYS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
80%
Under 0
20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TB By 1-2 runs
11.9%
TB By 3-4 runs
6.4%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.1%
TEX By 3-4 runs
19.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
2.2
TAMPA BAY
Texas
4.75
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Texas
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.6
D
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
TB @ TEX
6 - 8
Sep 5, 2026
TB @ TEX
6 - 3
Sep 4, 2026
TB @ TEX
7 - 6
Sep 3, 2026
TB @ TEX
0 - 6
Jul 30, 2026
TEX @ TB
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.728
▲
OPS
.713
169
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+68.0% more
Texas: 0.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.1
Home Runs (L5)
+44.0% more
Texas: 0.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.4
Walks (L5)
+37.4% more
Texas: 1.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.3
Home Runs (Season)
+8.3% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
2.2
2
TEX Score
4.8
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
4.9 / 7.7
6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 9.4
11.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
8.6 / 10.6
10.0 / 7.0
Walks
1.8 / 1.3
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
TB
TEX
TB
ML
53%
86-76
58%
95-68
57%
91-70
58%
95-68
ATS
57%
92-70
60%
97-66
61%
98-63
55%
90-73
TTL
53%
78-70-14
47%
73-81-9
55%
81-66-14
51%
78-75-10
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