BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
3-5 | Road
8
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
3-4 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jackson Holliday
#7 | Second Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Daniel Lynch IV
#41 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Holliday | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Daniel Lynch IV | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
0.00
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
44%
ROYALS
56%
ORIOLES
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.1%
BAL By 3-4 runs
14.8%
KC By 1-2 runs
17.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
12.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.13
BALTIMORE
Kansas City
3.69
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Win
44% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim
Orioles (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 12, 2026
KC @ BAL
2 - 8
Jul 11, 2026
KC @ BAL
1 - 6
Jul 10, 2026
KC @ BAL
3 - 5
Apr 22, 2026
BAL @ KC
8 - 6
Apr 21, 2026
BAL @ KC
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Kansas City
KC
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.711
OPS
▲
.718
199
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+26.0% more
Baltimore: 0.6
vs
Kansas City: 0.3
Home Runs (Season)
+14.6% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Kansas City: 170.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+4.5% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Kansas City: 4.3
Walks (L5)
+51.3% more
Kansas City: 4.0
vs
Baltimore: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.1
8
KC Score
3.7
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.9 / 7.7
5.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 8.4
7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.3 / 11.1
8.0 / 17.0
Walks
4.0 / 2.6
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
BAL
KC
BAL
ML
55%
89-72
53%
83-73
56%
90-70
57%
90-69
ATS
57%
91-70
61%
95-60-1
58%
93-67
57%
90-68-1
TTL
58%
90-64-7
54%
81-70-5
54%
83-70-7
51%
78-75-6
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