TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
4-3 | Road
4
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
6-2 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Kelly
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob deGrom
#48 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kelly | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jacob deGrom | None-None | 3.38 | -- | 5.2 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.50
ERA
Ldr 3.38
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
31%
RANGERS
69%
RAYS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TB By 1-2 runs
10.1%
TB By 3-4 runs
5.0%
TEX By 1-2 runs
18.1%
TEX By 3-4 runs
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
2.03
TAMPA BAY
Texas
5.22
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Texas
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rangers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.2
D
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.3
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
TB @ TEX
6 - 8
Sep 5, 2026
TB @ TEX
6 - 3
Sep 4, 2026
TB @ TEX
7 - 6
Sep 3, 2026
TB @ TEX
0 - 6
Jul 30, 2026
TEX @ TB
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.728
▲
OPS
.713
169
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+62.0% more
Texas: 0.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+29.1% more
Texas: 9.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 7.6
Walks (L5)
+21.4% more
Texas: 1.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.5
Errors (L5)
+12.0% more
Texas: 0.5
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
2.0
4
TEX Score
5.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
5.2 / 7.1
4.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.3
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.8 / 7.6
5.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
9.0 / 9.4
13.0 / 19.0
Walks
1.9 / 1.5
0.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
TB
TEX
TB
ML
53%
86-76
58%
95-68
57%
91-70
58%
95-68
ATS
57%
92-70
60%
97-66
61%
98-63
55%
90-73
TTL
53%
78-70-14
47%
73-81-9
55%
81-66-14
51%
78-75-10
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