TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
8-2 | Road
0
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
7-5 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nathan Eovaldi
#17 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Colin Rea
#53 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | None-None | 2.29 | -- | 4.2 | 4 |
| Colin Rea | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.29
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
4.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
74%
CUBS
26%
RANGERS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
TEX By 1-2 runs
18.1%
TEX By 3-4 runs
13.1%
CHC By 1-2 runs
18.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
14.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4.41
TEXAS
Chicago
4.58
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Win
26% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
C
Sim
Cubs (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 10, 2026
CHC @ TEX
0 - 3
May 9, 2026
CHC @ TEX
0 - 6
May 8, 2026
CHC @ TEX
7 - 1
Apr 9, 2025
TEX @ CHC
6 - 2
Apr 8, 2025
TEX @ CHC
6 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.15
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.713
▲
OPS
.374
183
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+179.3% more
Chicago: 4.2
vs
Texas: 1.5
Errors (L5)
+55.0% more
Chicago: 0.8
vs
Texas: 0.2
Hits (L5)
+47.0% more
Chicago: 8.2
vs
Texas: 5.6
Total Bases (L5)
+31.6% more
Chicago: 13.9
vs
Texas: 10.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.4
0
CHC Score
4.6
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 5.6
10.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 7.5
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 10.6
13.0 / 3.0
Walks
4.2 / 1.5
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
TEX
CHC
TEX
ML
58%
93-68
53%
86-76
51%
82-79
57%
91-70
ATS
61%
97-63-1
57%
92-70
47%
75-85-1
61%
98-63
TTL
52%
81-74-6
53%
78-70-14
46%
72-83-6
55%
81-66-14
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