Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Mets MIA @ NYM

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

5-6  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, Apr 9 • 1:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

8-3  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Max Meyer
STARTING PITCHER

Max Meyer

#23 | Starting Pitcher
@
Brett Baty
STARTING PITCHER

Brett Baty

#7 | Third Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Max Meyer None-None 2.00 -- 6.1 4
Brett Baty None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.00 ERA --
-- WHIP --
6.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
4 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
24%
📊
METS
76%
MARLINS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 37%
Under 0 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (New York)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

34.8%

Mets Cover

65.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

MIA By 1-2 runs

14.8%

MIA By 3-4 runs

9.0%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

17.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.26
MIAMI
4.82
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
76% Win Prob
B
Sim Mets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 NYM @ MIA 15 - 14
Sep 8, 2026 NYM @ MIA 7 - 5
Sep 7, 2026 NYM @ MIA 9 - 4
Aug 2, 2026 MIA @ NYM 2 - 0
Aug 1, 2026 MIA @ NYM 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.41 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.727 ▲
OPS
.705
168
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +65.4% more
New York: 10.7 vs Miami: 6.4
Total Bases (L5) +25.4% more
New York: 13.8 vs Miami: 11.0
Hits (L5) +24.4% more
New York: 9.4 vs Miami: 7.6
Home Runs (Season) +21.4% more
New York: 204.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 3.3 5
NYM Score 4.8 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.4 / 7.6 2.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.7 / 6.4 12.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 13.8 / 11.0 2.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.7 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
MIA
NYM
MIA
ML
50% 79-80
48% 78-84
48% 76-83
55% 88-72
ATS
58% 93-66
56% 91-71
49% 78-81
54% 86-74
TTL
55% 80-66-13
56% 88-69-5
51% 74-72-13
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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