TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
8-4 | Road
6
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
9-5 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Burger
#21 | First Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Ethan Roberts
#39 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Ethan Roberts | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
0.00
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
53%
CUBS
47%
RANGERS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
TEX By 1-2 runs
15.4%
TEX By 3-4 runs
9.6%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
17.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4.15
TEXAS
Chicago
5.5
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Loss
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim
Cubs (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 10, 2026
CHC @ TEX
0 - 3
May 9, 2026
CHC @ TEX
0 - 6
May 8, 2026
CHC @ TEX
7 - 1
Apr 9, 2025
TEX @ CHC
6 - 2
Apr 8, 2025
TEX @ CHC
6 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.15
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.713
▲
OPS
.374
183
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+38.1% more
Chicago: 9.9
vs
Texas: 7.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+34.4% more
Chicago: 8.8
vs
Texas: 6.6
Total Bases (L5)
+16.5% more
Chicago: 14.4
vs
Texas: 12.4
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.2
6
CHC Score
5.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.9 / 7.1
4.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.0
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 6.6
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 12.4
6.0 / 21.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.3
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
TEX
CHC
TEX
ML
58%
93-68
53%
86-76
51%
82-79
57%
91-70
ATS
61%
97-63-1
57%
92-70
47%
75-85-1
61%
98-63
TTL
52%
81-74-6
53%
78-70-14
46%
72-83-6
55%
81-66-14
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